When Manning doesn't throw interceptions, the Colts win. He's 112-27 in games he has thrown one interception or less. That's an 80.5 winning percentage. But when Manning throws interceptions, the Colts lose.

Through the 2008 season, Manning had 50 multi-interception games, and the Colts lost 35. That's a 30 percent winning percentage.

So back-to-back victories in multi-interception games by Manning this season constitute a major sign of progress by the Colts. They expect to win when Manning has his A-game going. But the Colts now know they can win even on days Manning isn't at his best. That makes the Colts the team to beat this January.

rgosselin@dallasnews.com

Rising stock

Kevin Burnett

ILB, San Diego

An off-season free-agent acquisition from the Cowboys , Burnett started the first five games and ranked second on the Chargers in tackles with 31. But he sprained an ankle in the fifth game against Denver and missed the next three weeks. He returned to the field but not the starting lineup Nov. 15 against Philadelphia. Despite coming off the bench, Burnett has led the Chargers in tackles each of the last two games.

Falling stock

Tony Scheffler

TE, Denver

No one misses Mike Shanahan more in Denver than Scheffler. Shanahan built an offense that featured the tight end. The departure of Shanahan and arrival of Josh McDaniels in 2009 has altered Scheffler's role dramatically. McDaniels relies on three-receiver sets, so the tight end is the odd man out. Scheffler has caught one pass or fewer in six of Denver's 10 games.

Around the Ranch

The Thanksgiving scheduling elbow has always been a huge advantage for the Cowboys . The NFL generally schedules the Cowboys at home on the Sunday before Thanksgiving, which gives them two home games in five days. Hosting the annual Thanksgiving game essentially gives the Cowboys a late-season bye, because they then have 11 days before they play again. With their win over Oakland, the Cowboys have won four Thanksgiving games in a row.

DRAFT WATCH Ndamukong Suh Derby

There are three teams sitting at 1-9 - Cleveland, St. Louis and Tampa Bay. The Browns may have the most stable quarterbacking of the three with Brady Quinn showing signs of life last week with his first career 300-yard passing game. The Rams may be without starting quarterback Marc Bulger for the rest of the season with a broken leg, and the Buccaneers are trying to teach rookie Josh Freeman how to play quarterback on the fly.

The Bucs play four of their remaining six games on the road, including at New Orleans. So I'd pencil in the Bucs as the favorite for the first overall pick of the 2010 draft. With the NFL's worst run defense and 26th overall defense, Ndamukong Suh, the Outland Trophy finalist from Nebraska, would be the logical choice with that pick.

Commish for a day

I'd eliminate the coin toss in overtime and continue the kickoff rotation. That might make coaches a little more aggressive offensively.

Take last week's Falcons-Giants game. The Giants won the opening coin toss and elected to receive. So the Giants kicked the ball off to the Falcons at the start of the second half. That means if the game goes into overtime, it would be New York's turn to receive again.

If the Falcons knew the Giants would receive the overtime kickoff, Atlanta coach Mike Smith might have decided to go for a two-point conversion to win after a TD with 28 seconds left made it 31-30.

From the wallet

If I'm buying

an NFL

ticket this

week, here's how

I spend my money:

LUXURY BOX $$$

New England at New Orleans: The Patriots' Tom Brady and the Saints' Drew Brees would be worth the price of admission for this game even if both teams were 5-5.

LOWER BOWL $$

Arizona at Tennessee: The Titans (4-6) have reeled off four consecutive victories to rekindle wild-card playoff hopes in an unsettled AFC. The defending NFC champion Cardinals are 5-0 on the road.

UPPER DECK $

Pittsburgh at Baltimore: This game will decide which team chases Cincinnati down the stretch in the AFC North race. The Bengals are 7-3, the Steelers 6-4 and the Ravens 5-5. This game is Baltimore's season.

If Super Bowl were played tomorrow

Who can argue with the Colts and Saints? Every week there are upsets. You see the Bengals and Eagles losing to the Raiders, the Steelers losing to the Chiefs, the Packers losing to the Bucs and the Cardinals losing to the 49ers. Parity is rampant in the NFL everywhere except Indianapolis and New Orleans. You can appreciate the machine-like efficiency of the Colts and Saints in marching through their schedules with perfection.

INSIDE THE NFL is posted every Tuesday on dallasnews.com. It can also be delivered via e-mail for free.

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